South Sudan Tops Africa Growth Forecast at 10.5%

(JUBA) – South Sudan is projected to record sub-Saharan Africa’s fastest economic growth in 2026, with gross domestic product expected to expand by 10.5%, according to the International Monetary Fund’s October 2026 World Economic Outlook.

The projections are economic forecasts and do not confirm that living conditions have improved for ordinary citizens.

The catch is that the double digit figure is largely a rebound from a deep contraction.

IMF country data points to a sharp swing. The economy contracted by 7.7% in 2025 before the projected rebound.

Inflation, which reached 233.6% in 2025, is forecast to ease to 33.3% in 2026.

The forecast places South Sudan ahead of Ethiopia, which is projected to grow by 9.2%, and Rwanda at 7.4%, the IMF data shows.

The IMF projects sub-Saharan Africa’s economy to grow by 4.5% in 2026, above the global average of 3.1%.

The Fund raised its regional forecast by 0.2 percentage points from April, citing energy supply adjustments and domestic reforms. It warned that risks remain tilted to the downside.

For South Sudan, the forecast raises questions about whether growth will translate into more jobs, stronger purchasing power and improved public services.

Oil production remains a major driver of the economy, leaving growth exposed to disruptions in output and exports.

Oil accounts for more than 80% of GDP, about 95% of exports and between 70% and 80% of government budget revenues, according to the African Development Bank.

The IMF has previously linked South Sudan’s fortunes directly to oil.

A 2024 country report projected inflation of 62.9% for the 2024/25 fiscal year and a fiscal balance of 3.7% of GDP. Those figures have since been overtaken by the sharper contraction and price surges recorded in 2025.

The World Bank’s projections for South Sudan have been even more dramatic.

Its 2026 forecast put real GDP growth at 20.3%, driven by an anticipated 41.9% expansion in industry as oil output resumes.

The same forecast projected that 82.1% of the population would remain below the international poverty line of $3.00 per day.

The regional picture carries further warnings.

The IMF’s October 2026 Regional Economic Outlook said median inflation across sub-Saharan Africa is expected to rise from 3.4% in 2025 to 4.3% in 2026 and 5% in 2027.

Fertilizer prices are up 26%, and aid flows are falling by a further 12%.

Interest payments are absorbing about 12% of government revenue across the region, leaving little room to cushion households.

For South Sudan specifically, the Fund has flagged that spillovers from the conflict in neighbouring Sudan have worsened economic conditions.

It cited refugee inflows and damage to an oil pipeline as factors that slowed activity, drove sharp currency depreciation and lifted inflation.

The IMF has also projected a budget surplus of 3.3% for South Sudan’s 2025/26 fiscal year, compared with an estimated deficit of 1.9% a year earlier.

Budget pressures and economic fragility could still delay improvement.

The projected expansion will need to produce tangible benefits for households before citizens feel its impact.