Beyond Oil: Reimagining South Sudan’s Economy

(JUBA) – A new policy paper from the Institute of Social Policy and Research (ISPR), released on 16 July 2025, has criticised South Sudan’s proposed 2025-2026 national budget, urging transparency, citizen engagement and fairness in resource distribution.

The paper authored by governance expert Boboya James Edimond calls for a shift towards a “pro-citizen” approach amid persistent economic and political challenges facing the country.

The report seeks to spark discussion between the Ministry of Finance and Planning, the Reconstituted Transitional National Legislative Assembly, spending agencies and civil society. It highlighted the lack of public awareness about how public funds are raised and spent, arguing that this absence undermines accountability, democratic governance and development. South Sudan became independent in 2011, but continues to suffer the long term effects of civil war, conflict and underdevelopment. With 74% of its population under 30 and over 92% living in poverty, the country faces immense humanitarian, economic and governance challenges. The paper argues that without political will, reforms, and public engagement, the national budget risks becoming irrelevant to citizens’ needs. The analysis shows that while the annual budget cycle is theoretically guided by the 2011 Public Financial Management and Accountability Act, in practice it is undermined by overreliance on oil, weak institutional frameworks, limited citizen involvement and low technical capacity. The lack of a clear structure for involving the public in budget planning further limits transparency. A significant share of the country’s budget goes to debt servicing, often exceeding allocations to sectors like education. In 2023-2024 and 2024-2025, debt payments accounted for 13% of spending, compared to lower levels for social services. South Sudan’s debt-to-GDP ratio rose to 54.32% in 2024 and is forecast to drop only gradually over the next five years.

Year	GDP (USD)	Debt (USD)	Debt-to-GDP Ratio
2023	$5.1B	$1.76B	34.5%
2024	$4.85B	$2.63B	54.32%
2025	(Proj.)	$3.14B	64.7%

The economic outlook remains bleak, with the World Bank projecting a 30% contraction in GDP for FY2024-2025. Inflation, food insecurity and unemployment continue to rise. An estimated 6.4 million people currently face food insecurity, rising to 7.7 million by mid 2025. Over 2 million children under five suffer from acute malnutrition. Meanwhile, oil production disruptions linked to the war in Sudan have further weakened revenues. USAID funding cuts under the new US administration and reduced European aid added to the fiscal crisis. In 2024, the US contributed $508 million (SSP 2.33 trillion) in aid to South Sudan. This lifeline is now under threat. ISPR’s report stresses that better governance of oil revenue, economic diversification, debt restructuring and investment in agriculture are vital for recovery. It recommends developing a Citizens’ Budget to improve understanding of government finances and enable public oversight. Such tools, it says, can empower citizens to demand accountability and ensure that resources benefit all South Sudanese. The paper compares South Sudan’s budget performance unfavourably with that of its East African neighbours. Rwanda’s 2025 budget increased by 21% due to tax reforms, while South Sudan has delayed submitting its budget to parliament. The EAC-wide trend is towards increased domestic revenue mobilisation and reduced aid reliance, a shift South Sudan has yet to embrace effectively. The report concludes that public financial management reforms, under the Revitalized Peace Agreement (R-ARCSS), must be implemented urgently. It warns that without reforms, the risk of budget failure remains high, threatening the already fragile state with worsening poverty and instability. To make budgets work, the ISPR insists, the government must adopt clear principles namely transparency, inclusivity, equity and accountability. Only then, it says, can South Sudan’s budget evolve from a paper exercise into a real tool for building a better future.